Early Kidnap Percentages

[Brogan]

I'll send my turns to whoever would like too see them, just let me know.

[Wynterbreeze]

Seems like we're trying to break the game to statistics. Where's the mystery or fun in that?

Mystery is different from fun, and I can you, it is not much FUN at all, wondering if my Agent 10 has a decent chance at bribing a Prince.

It's not even half FUN wondering if my P7 wizard can diplomacy a city with a baron maintaining status quo, while I'm tolerant in the region, the controlling king is friendly in the region, and success would mean a SVC win, with failure being every Kingdom that is able, will crush you in the next two turns for trying to win.

I'm not asking for formulas and/or breaking anything, I want to know if it's even a maybe.

However in this case of this thread, we are wondering if the random number generator this game uses is "damaged" in some unknown fashion. The players are trying to collect enough empirical data to make a case, so someone might take a serious look, at the generator code, function, or what ever determines that number. Until there is data, that code is working as intended.

[HeadHoncho]

Thanks, Brogan. Here are the results of my analysis. Of the early kidnap attempts, five were within range and attempted to execute. Four targets were unguarded and unwarded, one target was unguarded but warded. One target had been slept the turn before, but no "the target was sleeping" verbiage was in the encounter report, which makes me wonder if the beneficial modifier was applied.

Agent 17 vs. warded Baron (70% success) - FAIL
Agent 15 vs. Count (70% success) - FAIL
Agent 13 vs. Baron (70% success) - FAIL
Agent 13 vs. Baron (70% success) - FAIL
Agent 17 vs. sleeping Agent 10 - (85% + sleep bonus) - FAIL

Moreover, every single failure notice was accompanied by the exact same verbiage, which matches up against my verbiage as well:

NORMAL SECURITY WAS PRESENT, HOWEVER, NO AGENT TEAM ON COUNTER ESPIONAGE WAS NOTED IN THE AREA. SECURITY ON HAND PROVED MUCH TOO EFFECTIVE TO EVEN CLOSE ON THE TARGET: MISSION ABORTED. THE TEAM SLIPPED QUIETLY AWAY, UNDETECTED.

The chances of my failures and Brogan's failures happening normally (assuming the sleep adds 10% and/or success caps at 95%) are:

0.00037969%

Or in other words, this series of eight failures out of eight is likely to occur one time in approximately 263,373 sets of eight series.

At this point, and in particular given the identical verbiage every single time, I believe I'm extremely confident that there is a bug or other problem with the early kidnap order. All current UN players should take this into account until such time that we receive further information from Rick and/or Cipher. Thanks.

[Cargus10]

I will get you my analysis tonight - sorry I was delayed

[kevindusi]

One question I have is whether anyone has had ANY successful 295 attempts in recent memory? I have not since 102, which was before any changes were made.

[Wynand]

Would be interested in Kirk's perspective based on 118....Kirk, any thoughts?

[Acererak]

And I just signed up for the UN in the next game (sigh).

[HeadHoncho]

I totally feel your pain. I'm playing UN in 121, and I've lost out on three agent promotions, an enemy EL ambassador is still in one of my pop centers, and my ESO is at risk, due to this issue.

[Wynterbreeze]

And I just signed up for the UN in the next game (sigh).

Un-sign up. It's appears to be a broken kingdom. You wouldn't play the DE if the Princes all of a sudden stopped being able to gate.

[Ry Vor]

And I just signed up for the UN in the next game (sigh).

Un-sign up. It's appears to be a broken kingdom. You wouldn't play the DE if the Princes all of a sudden stopped being able to gate.

Yes, a broken kingdom! Run! What does 25 years of history mean?