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The effect luck plays in Alamaze
#1
Let me start by explaining that this is NOT a criticism of the game.  I have played Alamaze for a long time and I intend to continue playing.  I am posting this information to highlight the fact that Alamaze requires a good amount of skill but luck plays a very significant factor.
 
I am not a lucky person, I don’t play the LOTTO games because I rarely even get one number correct.  This holds true in Alamaze as well, in fact among my friends who play Alamaze we have a running joke.  When someone receives a really bad turn it is called George luck.
 
An Alamaze game recently completed in which I was very frustrated.  It seemed that almost everything I tried failed.  I decided to track the luck based activates where I had knowledge of my success rate.   The agent success rates were taken from the Second Cycle player aid so I expect my anticipated success rate is a little off.  I will highlight the areas where I expect the success rates have changed.  I will also post the exact activates that were attempted with any special circumstances that would impact the activity.
 
On activates with a 50% success chance, all of these are wizards trying to exceed their maximum level by 1, I tried 6 times and succeeded once for a success rate of 16%.  This was not a magic based kingdom so I needed to reach level 7 to gain Dome of Invulnerability.    Each attempt cost 70k gold.  I think everyone can understand the negative impact to these failures.
 
Activates with a 60% to 65% success chance, all of these were assassination attempts against emmies that were warded.  According to the spell, ward grants a 20% bonus against assassination attempts.  This 20% is already considered in the success chance.   Success rate was 1 of 3, 33%.
 
70% -75%  this is a mix of activities and I think this is one area where my anticipated success rate is off.  Two attempts to steal artifacts, I think this is much harder in the Choosing then it was in the second cycle, two attempts to assassinate warlords, again much harder now, and one attempt to assassinate a slept count.  Success rate 2 of 5, 40%.
 
85% - two assassination attempts against slept emmies using a demon dagger and one attempt to steal an artifact. 2 of 3 for 66%
 
95% - 97%, another mix of activates, 5 attempts to assassinate low level emmies and 3 attempts to sabotage food .  Success rate 6 of 8 or 75%.

Note that my overall success rate on all activates was 48%.
 
Talking with some of my Alamaze friends they tend to have better luck then I do.  Some report significantly higher success rates at exceeding maximum magic levels then I experience.

 Failure on any one of these individual activates did not make a significant impact on my game but as an aggregate it was a significant factor.  This would be doubly true if my opponents in this game were lucky.
 
Just as an extra point I tracked the success of my Fool at raising my influence.  Over 28 attempts he achieved an average .15 increase.  The statistical average is .2. 
 
There is no way for me to know how this game would have changed if my success rate had been closer to the expected rates but I do know that my opponents would have had a much tougher time.
 
I believe that luck is one of the major factors in winning a game of Alamaze and agent actions and mage progression is a small part of that.  Not being attacked in the early  stages of the game plays even a bigger factor.

I hope you all have GOOD LUCK in your future games.


Attached Files
.xlsx   SUCCESS RATE.xlsx (Size: 10.64 KB / Downloads: 2)
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#2
(07-28-2016, 06:01 PM)gkmetty Wrote: Let me start by explaining that this is NOT a criticism of the game.  I have played Alamaze for a long time and I intend to continue playing.  I am posting this information to highlight the fact that Alamaze requires a good amount of skill but luck plays a very significant factor.
 
I am not a lucky person, I don’t play the LOTTO games because I rarely even get one number correct.  This holds true in Alamaze as well, in fact among my friends who play Alamaze we have a running joke.  When someone receives a really bad turn it is called George luck.
 
An Alamaze game recently completed in which I was very frustrated.  It seemed that almost everything I tried failed.  I decided to track the luck based activates where I had knowledge of my success rate.   The agent success rates were taken from the Second Cycle player aid so I expect my anticipated success rate is a little off.  I will highlight the areas where I expect the success rates have changed.  I will also post the exact activates that were attempted with any special circumstances that would impact the activity.
 
On activates with a 50% success chance, all of these are wizards trying to exceed their maximum level by 1, I tried 6 times and succeeded once for a success rate of 16%.  This was not a magic based kingdom so I needed to reach level 7 to gain Dome of Invulnerability.    Each attempt cost 70k gold.  I think everyone can understand the negative impact to these failures.
 
Activates with a 60% to 65% success chance, all of these were assassination attempts against emmies that were warded.  According to the spell, ward grants a 20% bonus against assassination attempts.  This 20% is already considered in the success chance.   Success rate was 1 of 3, 33%.
 
70% -75%  this is a mix of activities and I think this is one area where my anticipated success rate is off.  Two attempts to steal artifacts, I think this is much harder in the Choosing then it was in the second cycle, two attempts to assassinate warlords, again much harder now, and one attempt to assassinate a slept count.  Success rate 2 of 5, 40%.
 
85% - two assassination attempts against slept emmies using a demon dagger and one attempt to steal an artifact. 2 of 3 for 66%
 
95% - 97%, another mix of activates, 5 attempts to assassinate low level emmies and 3 attempts to sabotage food .  Success rate 6 of 8 or 75%.

Note that my overall success rate on all activates was 48%.
 
Talking with some of my Alamaze friends they tend to have better luck then I do.  Some report significantly higher success rates at exceeding maximum magic levels then I experience.

 Failure on any one of these individual activates did not make a significant impact on my game but as an aggregate it was a significant factor.  This would be doubly true if my opponents in this game were lucky.
 
Just as an extra point I tracked the success of my Fool at raising my influence.  Over 28 attempts he achieved an average .15 increase.  The statistical average is .2. 
 
There is no way for me to know how this game would have changed if my success rate had been closer to the expected rates but I do know that my opponents would have had a much tougher time.
 
I believe that luck is one of the major factors in winning a game of Alamaze and agent actions and mage progression is a small part of that.  Not being attacked in the early  stages of the game plays even a bigger factor.

I hope you all have GOOD LUCK in your future games.

I cannot speak to your 'luck' (good or bad)...I for one think that I have been beaten by the 'unlucky' stick a few times too many...  :-)

But that being said, I am almost finished updating the 3rd Cycle player aids.  I am working on the last calculator now, and when it is completed I will have UM & Rick test it for accuracy before distributing it to everyone.
The Frost Lord,
Centurion in the Military War College
Pioneer of Alamaze
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#3
Looks like you are actually on par for your Fool. 0 + .1 + .2 + .3 = .6 / 4 = .15 as the average

As far as luck goes for me it is rather strange. My wizards seem to do great at killing other wizards and gaining influence I have not gone through and figured the odds but I know they are high

My agents seem to be a horrible lot.
I have gotten 0 skeletons out of many tries with very high level agents
I have had my level 11+ agents loose levels scouting 4 times. Pretty much any time someone is in counter order even with low level agents
Just a couple turns ago I issued 3 spoil food orders vs 3 different groups with my level 11+ agents and no counter agent on duty. All three failed
The scout orders actually annoy me the most because I have no chance to gain a level.
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#4
I think most players can attest to instances of good luck and bad luck in Alamaze. Mine seems to come in long streaks. If I get 4 turns on the same day, I have found that if the first one has good luck so do the rest. But if the first one has bad rolls, I'm loathe to even open the rest!

I've had one instance where I had 3 wizards all make their 50% roll to exceed their maximum cap on the same turn (in the same group no less) and then another where I took 3 high level leaders in to a Fine unusual sighting (tactic 2) and I got the artifact (succeeded) but ALL 3 leaders died getting it (George luck!). Go figure.
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#5
I can attest to his bs rolls for killing wizards
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#6
When looking at the big picture (all die rolls in the game, emissary, agent, wizard, etc. combined across all kingdoms), a "pattern" may appear where your kingdom is on a successful streak (or negative crunch) but that may be dependent on the total number of random die roll requests in the game. Fewer die roll requests may look like results are skewered while in another turn, you may notice a smoother distribution of die rolls. The game software refreshes the 'seed' value for random die rolls every time it requests a value (so there shouldn't be a pattern) but if you want to learn how Java generates random numbers, you can look it up by searching for the SecureRandom() class.
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#7
I have tried to avoid some of these luck issues because they have frustrated me over the years.

I tend to not try and promote wizards beyond their level maximum.  I have had bad luck with that also.

I don't do much offensive with my agents but I do a lot of standing order guards and counters.  I also use bless.

Bribe is a hard mission.  I only attempt it with prisoners.

Emmies and armies don't rely on dice rolls as much.  I tend to bring more firepower than is needed to avoid failure.
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#8
Think .2 should be Fool average, in line cost/% with 470 order. I averaged .2 or better each game. It is not a straight line calc.
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#9
UM can you clarify how the fool works?  I thought I read that it works in a progression.  It first checks for a .3 increase, then it checks for a .2 increase and then a .1 increase and if they all fail then there is no increase.  Or is it a straight random number with percentages assigned to an increase value?

The reason for my inquiry is that if it is a progression then the average return would be .2.  If it is a single random number then the average is .15.

If the average is .15 then the return on investment is less then having a king raise influence and the Fool only becomes valuable once influence hits 20.  Or rather the Fool is less valuable until influence hits 20.  If you have more money then you can spend then spending money on the Fool presents value.
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#10
(07-28-2016, 09:18 PM)gkmetty Wrote: UM can you clarify how the fool works?  I thought I read that it works in a progression.  It first checks for a .3 increase, then it checks for a .2 increase and then a .1 increase and if they all fail then there is no increase.  Or is it a straight random number with percentages assigned to an increase value?

The reason for my inquiry is that if it is a progression then the average return would be .2.  If it is a single random number then the average is .15.

If the average is .15 then the return on investment is less then having a king raise influence and the Fool only becomes valuable once influence hits 20.  Or rather the Fool is less valuable until influence hits 20.  If you have more money then you can spend then spending money on the Fool presents value.

I think JF is correct with the .15.  The fool is valuable to increase influence over 20 and to decrease the time to get to 20.
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