Game 157 - SVC eligible

[Drogo]

I think your point is generally valid. It would be great to have more randomized PC's but there are some constraints that make this difficult, no? But yes, more randomizing would be better if it doesn't mean the Troll capital is in the desert.

[The Broken]

Bigger map, would fix most problems.

[bananas]

I'm semi-new and kind of knew that this 'feature' existed. I'm playing to have fun, not to 'win at all costs or else my life is worthless, meaningless, and over' On the other hand, if I were to get tromped so badly such that there was no point in continuing past turn 5, then I'd quit. But that is more about the community than the game itself. From the little I've read, it seems most of the people here are level headed. You try to be fair but won't bend over backwards to avoid taking advantage of someone who is 'asking for it'. If you can flex your muscles and do something really cool (like taking a region on turn 2!), then great. Apparently it is harder than it looks (requiring luck in addition to past knowledge). If that started happening all the time, I may get frustrated... but I suspect it won't.

On the other-other hand.... if you ran a parser against enough turn results, you might be able to apply some fancy statistical analysis and find a flaw in the randomness. Maybe there are a few PCs out there that turn out to be much more 'stable' than the others... Maybe you can get that unexplained 3-1 ratio up to 2-1 in certain instances..... Did I say that out loud? Oooops!

[Lord Thanatos]

So on turn one you moved emmys into locations you didn't really know were there, Hell magic aside. You guessed on prior experience, a well educated guess, because PC's ARE often in the same location game to game to game.

That's my point.  Newer players with out a mass collection of previous games are seriously out classed.  This would concern me, if I was worried about new players getting roflstomped, not only because they are new but now because experience plays can just take regions on turn two, in a game that is suppose to slow you down from taking a region (exploratory). The fault is not with the players, its with the game putting PC's in the same spot game after game (Random?)

Am I seriously the only one a bit concerned?  If so, I wont say another word.

The knowledge advantage that comes with experience is not in knowing potential starting locations for pcs - as you suggest.  Rather, the experience is in knowing which kingdoms start with pcs in which regions.  This information is available to all players by reviewing the sample turn zero results located somewhere in the Forum.  Additionally, one should calculate that all 15 players begin with 4 pcs (2 towns and 2 villages) for a total of 60 known starting pcs in addition to the known locations of 12 cities.  Both Amberland and Arcania begin with two cities so are the regions where control on turn 2 is possible.  The WA, GI and DE begin primarily in these two regions.  Therefore, in every full diplomacy game it is theoretically possible for Amberland and Arcania to be controlled on turn 2 - VIA NEGOTIATION.  The DE can move emissaries to towns where other players begin with their 2nd kingdom group - ON TURN ONE.  The GI and WA cannot do this.  Therefore, the GI and WA would have to move groups to these starting towns in order to attack on turn 2.  The WA is not likely to be able to either attack or 171 such a location on turn 2.  This leaves only the GI able to control Amberland on turn 2 - VIA NEGOTIATION and some measure of good luck.

Having said all of the above . . . from the first game of Alamaze two years ago to the present . . . this is the first time in a regular game I have seen a region controlled on turn 2.  This is definitely NOT a common occurence.  If you play in an Anonymous contest it is virtually impossible.

I assure you there is nothing to be concerned about.  Every player can randomly send their emissaries to cover as many hexes as possible, but there is no guarantee this will result in success.  Why? Because the locations of starting pcs ARE TRULY RANDOM.

Congratulations JumpingFist!

[The Broken]

The DE all ready said he did just what i said.  
I'm the AN so he didn't get my town with "diplomacy".

He moved into locations using previous PC starting info as a educated guess, that part is undisputed.

I'm over it now,  If you want to increase your player base, instead of players going 3 and out, then i suggest coming up with solutions to age old issues. Instead of being in denial of a problem.

[Jumpingfist]

The DE all ready said he did just what i said.  
I'm the AN so he didn't get my town with "diplomacy".

He moved into locations using previous PC starting info as a educated guess, that part is undisputed.

I'm over it now,  If you want to increase your player base, instead of players going 3 and out, then i suggest coming up with solutions to age old issues. Instead of being in denial of a problem.

I didn't say that.  I agreed there are a few common spots but really it is not all that.  Just because they are common does not mean they will be there like I said maybe reduces it to like a 1 in 3 chance instead of 1 in 4 and that would be 1 in 3 if you could look at squares 1 at a time.  You can not do this with a group or even with a 976.  So really is again less help than you would think.  If there were such an obvious distubution experience players would have there regions by T3 most all the time.  But that does not happen.  Normally 1 or 2 players has the region on T3 and another 4-6 on T4.  Most are taken by T5 unless someone got messed with.
I will give full details during the post game write up.   You will see it was not that much what happened. I just put myself in a position to get a little lucky and I did.

[The Broken]

Ok, There is no game issue, just really smart experienced players, that know how to manipulate the system to far greater advantage then new players to the game.

So random isn't totally random, it's random to 1-4 squares, because of the size of the map, got it.

Soon everyone will figure out how and implement the strategy, so lets just save time and make it harder find PC's again. Maybe not have groups report PC they pass, only land on, make the agent order to search require lvl 8. And don't get me started about the high priestess. (sarcasm)

And while you're talking about high priestess, can some one explain why you can't buy one till turn 4? Why didn't you just make it so you couldn't use order 750 until turn 4?

[Lord Thanatos]

ARCANIA - 101

Usually has 7 towns, 7 villages, and 2 cities.

My personal rule of thumb:
7 villages = 7 points
7 towns = 14 points (approx twice the population of villages)
2 cities = 6 points (approx thrice the population of villages)
TOTAL = 27 points of relative census

Must control 50% of a region's population in order to control the region...  Therefore 14 "points" required!

DE player begins with Town and Village in Arcania (3 points)
If DE player controls both cities on turn 2 (6 points)
If trades starting towns with BL and moves demonprince there turn one (2 points)
If negotiates with AN for control of town in Arcania (2 points)
If trades starting village with WA (1 point)
TOTAL = 14 points of relative census and CONTROL of region!!!

The DE player need NOT guess at the location of even a single popcenter in order to control the region on turn 2.  He MUST negotiate like the devil (see the pun?) though.

If the region begins with 8 towns or 8 villages instead of 7 (OR if the AN refuses to negotiate away his town) then the DE must be fortunate to find either one town (or two villages) OR one town and one village to gain control of Arcania on turn 2.

26 x 26 = 676 hexes total on the map (26 rows x 26 columns).
10 regions = average of 68 hexes per region.

DE player knows the location of 2 cities, 2 of his own pcs, and can learn through negotiation the location of 3 other pcs.  68 minus 7 = 61 remaining hexes.

DE player issues two 725 orders covering 10 hexes total (each group will stop when it reaches a pc);
DE player uses a Demonprince at BL starting town and both cities, as well as a Count and Duke at the two cities;
DE player RANDOMLY selects 4 or 5 hexes to relocate his other emissaries governor or above.

Without knowing the location of a single pc from any previous contest a DE player can cover 15 of the remaining 61 hexes, about 25%.  Therefore he has a 25% chance of locating the one additional town he needs if the AN refuses to deal and about 12.5% to locate two additional pcs.

All of the above information is available to a new player who reads the rules, views the map, and peruses the sample turn zero reports!!!

Getting the AN, BL and WA players to each concede control of their Arcania popcenters is not guaranteed; controlling both cities on turn 2 is not guaranteed; randomly landing upon one or two pcs is not guaranteed.  That is why I heartily congratulate JumpingFist and why I have not seen anyone else control a region on turn 2 in a regular Alamaze game.

As to the concern that experienced players can readily take advantage of knowledge of previous pc starting locations to garner an edge I believe that is not something to be concerned with, regardless of JumpingFist's posturing that he can change a 25% chance into a 33% chance.  It simply isn't true.  Such beliefs have built a magical kingdom in the desert named Las Vegas!!!  

I hope the above provides insight to new players, as that is my intent.

[kevindusi]

Well said, LT.

[The Broken]

So what I hear is there should really be two kingdoms starting in Arcanina instead of just one. Thanks.